Should data monitoring committees assess efficacy when considering safety in trails in acute stroke?

The primary role of a trials Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) is to ensure the safety of enrolled patients. In stroke trials, safety is monitored typically by comparing death and stroke specific events between treatment groups. DMCs may also have the remit for monitoring efficacy depending on the aims of the trial. We hypothesised that functional outcome at end of follow-up, a measure of efficacy, is also a powerful measure of safety and tested this in a systematic review

The relationship between baseline blood pressure and computed tomography findings in acute stroke: data from the Tinzaparin in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Trial (TAIST)

Background and Purpose—High blood pressure (BP) is present in 80% of patients with acute ischemic stroke and is independently associated with poor outcome. There are few data examining the relationship between admission BP and acute CT findings. Methods—TAIST was a randomized controlled trial assessing 10 days of treatment with tinzaparin versus aspirin in 1489 patients with acute ischemic stroke (48 hr) with admission BP of 220/120 mm Hg. CT brain scans were performed before randomization and after 10 days. The relationships between baseline BP and adjudicated CT findings were assessed. Odds ratios per 10 mm Hg change in BP were calculated. Results—Higher systolic BP (SBP) was associated with abnormal CT scans because of independent associations with chronic changes of leukoariosis (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05–1.17) and old infarction (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.06 –1.17) at baseline, and signs of visible infarction at day 10 (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00 –1.13). A lower SBP was associated with signs of acute infarction (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89–0.99). Hemorrhagic transformation, dense middle cerebral artery sign, mass effect, and cerebral edema at day 10 were not independently associated with baseline BP. Conclusion—Although high baseline BP is independently associated with a poor outcome after stroke, this was not shown to be through an association with increased hemorrhagic transformation, cerebral edema, or mass effect; trial design may be suboptimal to detect this. Higher SBP is associated with visible infarction on day 10 scans. The influence of changing BP in acute stroke on CT findings is still to be ascertained.

Interventions for dysphagia in acute stroke (Review)

Background It is unclear how dysphagic patients should be fed and treated after acute stroke. Objectives The objective of this review was to assess the effect of different management strategies for dysphagic stroke patients, in particular how and when to feed, whether to supplement nutritional intake, and how and whether to treat dysphagia. Search strategy We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group trials register, Medline, Embase, ISI, and existing review articles.We contacted researchers in the field and equipment manufacturers. Date of the most recent searches: March 1999. Selection criteria Unconfounded truly or quasi randomised controlled trials in dysphagic patients with acute/subacute (within 3 months) stroke. Data collection and analysis Three reviewers independently applied the trial inclusion criteria. Two reviewers assessed trial quality and extracted the data. Main results Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) versus nasogastric tube (NGT) feeding: two trials (49 patients) suggest that PEG reduces end-of-trial case fatality (Peto Odds Ratio, OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.89) and treatment failures (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.52), and improves nutritional status, assessed as weight (Weighted Men Difference, WMD +4.1 kg, 95% CI -4.3 to +12.5), mid-arm circumference (WMD +2.2 cm, 95% CI -0.5 to +4.9) or serum albumin (WMD + 7.0 g/l, 95% CI +4.9 to +9.1) as compared with NGT feeding; two larger studies are ongoing. Timing of feeding: no completed trials; one large study is ongoing. Swallowing therapy for dysphagia: two trials (85 patients) suggest that formal swallowing therapy does not significantly reduce end-of-trial dysphagia rates (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.18 to 1.66). Drug therapy for dysphagia: one trial (17 patients); nifedipine did not alter end-of-trial case fatality or the frequency of dysphagia. Nutritional supplementation: one trial (42 patients) found a non-significant trend to a lower case fatality, and significantly increased energy and protein intake; one large trial is ongoing and data is awaited from two other studies. Fluid supplementation: one trial (20 patients) found that supplementation did not alter the time to resolution of dysphagia. Authors’ conclusions Too few studies have been performed, and these have involved too few patients. PEG feeding may improve outcome and nutrition as compared with NGT feeding. Further research is required to assess how and when patients are fed, and the effect of swallowing or drug therapy on dysphagia.

Relationship between therapeutic changes in blood pressure and outcomes in acute stroke: a metaregression

Both low and high blood pressure (BP) during the acute phase of stroke are associated independently with a poor outcome. Several small clinical trials have involved the alteration of BP and this study assessed the relationship between change in BP and functional outcome. Randomised controlled trials of interventions that would be expected, on pharmacological grounds, to alter BP in patients within one week of the onset of acute ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke were sought using electronic searches. Data were collected on BP and clinical outcome. The relationship between the difference in on-treatment BP and odds ratios (OR) for outcomes was assessed using meta-regression. Thirty-seven trials involving 9,008 patients were included. A ‘U’ or ‘J’ shaped relationship were found between on-treatment BP difference and early death, death at the end of 90 day follow up, and combined death or dependency at the end of follow up. Although outcomes were not significantly reduced at any level of change in BP, the lowest odds occurred at: early death (OR 0.87, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.54 to 1.23) - 8.1 mmHg; death at end of follow up (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.65) - 14.4 mmHg; and combined death or dependency at end of follow up (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.11 to 1.72) - 14.6 mmHg. Although large falls or increases in BP are associated with a worse outcome, modest reductions may reduce death, and combined death or dependency, although the confidence intervals are wide and compatible with overall benefit or hazard.

Compression stockings and the prevention of symptomatic venous thromboembolism: data from the Tinzaparin in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Trial

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a well recognised and preventable complication of acute stroke. While graduated compression stockings reduce the risk of VTE in surgical patients their benefit in acute stroke remains uncertain. Methods: The relationship between symptomatic VTE and use of stockings using observational data from the ‘Tinzaparin in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Trial’, which compared 10 days of treatment with tinzaparin (175 IU.kg-1 or 100 IU.kg-1) with, aspirin (300 mg od), was assessed using logistic regression adjusted for known VTE risk factors and treatment. Results: Symptomatic VTE occurred in 28 patients (1.9%, DVT 18, PE 13) within 15 days of enrolment in 1,479 patients. Patients wearing one or two stockings for any period of time during the first 10 days (n=803) had a non-significant increase (odds ratio, OR 2.45, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.95 - 6.32) in the risk of symptomatic VTE. In contrast, those wearing bilateral stockings for 10 days (n=374) had a non-significant reduction in the odds of symptomatic VTE as compared to those who wore no stockings or wore them for less than 10 days (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.26-1.65). Mild stroke and treatment with tinzaparin were associated with a reduced risk of VTE. Conclusions: Bilateral graduated compression stockings may reduce the incidence of VTE by one-third in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. However, the uncertainty in this finding, low frequency of symptomatic VTE, potential for stockings to cause harm, and cost of stockings highlight the need for a large randomised-controlled trial to examine the safety and efficacy of stockings in acute stroke.

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

Calculation of sample size for stroke trials assessing functional outcome: comparison of binary and ordinal approaches

Background Many acute stroke trials have given neutral results. Sub-optimal statistical analyses may be failing to detect efficacy. Methods which take account of the ordinal nature of functional outcome data are more efficient. We compare sample size calculations for dichotomous and ordinal outcomes for use in stroke trials. Methods Data from stroke trials studying the effects of interventions known to positively or negatively alter functional outcome – Rankin Scale and Barthel Index – were assessed. Sample size was calculated using comparisons of proportions, means, medians (according to Payne), and ordinal data (according to Whitehead). The sample sizes gained from each method were compared using Friedman 2 way ANOVA. Results Fifty-five comparisons (54 173 patients) of active vs. control treatment were assessed. Estimated sample sizes differed significantly depending on the method of calculation (Po00001). The ordering of the methods showed that the ordinal method of Whitehead and comparison of means produced significantly lower sample sizes than the other methods. The ordinal data method on average reduced sample size by 28% (inter-quartile range 14–53%) compared with the comparison of proportions; however, a 22% increase in sample size was seen with the ordinal method for trials assessing thrombolysis. The comparison of medians method of Payne gave the largest sample sizes. Conclusions Choosing an ordinal rather than binary method of analysis allows most trials to be, on average, smaller by approximately 28% for a given statistical power. Smaller trial sample sizes may help by reducing time to completion, complexity, and financial expense. However, ordinal methods may not be optimal for interventions which both improve functional outcome

Can we improve the statistical analysis of stroke trials? Statistical re-analysis of functional outcomes in stroke trials

Background: Most large acute stroke trials have been neutral. Functional outcome is usually analysed using a yes or no answer, e.g. death or dependency vs. independence. We assessed which statistical approaches are most efficient in analysing outcomes from stroke trials. Methods: Individual patient data from acute, rehabilitation and stroke unit trials studying the effects of interventions which alter functional outcome were assessed. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, and ‘3 questions’. Data were analysed using a variety of approaches which compare two treatment groups. The results for each statistical test for each trial were then compared. Results: Data from 55 datasets were obtained (47 trials, 54,173 patients). The test results differed substantially so that approaches which use the ordered nature of functional outcome data (ordinal logistic regression, t-test, robust ranks test, bootstrapping the difference in mean rank) were more efficient statistically than those which collapse the data into 2 groups (chi square) (ANOVA p<0.001). The findings were consistent across different types and sizes of trial and for the different measures of functional outcome. Conclusions: When analysing functional outcome from stroke trials, statistical tests which use the original ordered data are more efficient and more likely to yield reliable results. Suitable approaches included ordinal logistic regression, t-test, and robust ranks test.

Can we improve the statistical analysis of stroke trials? Statistical reanalysis of functional outcomes in stroke trials

Background and Purpose—Most large acute stroke trials have been neutral. Functional outcome is usually analyzed using a yes or no answer, eg, death or dependency versus independence. We assessed which statistical approaches are most efficient in analyzing outcomes from stroke trials. Methods—Individual patient data from acute, rehabilitation and stroke unit trials studying the effects of interventions which alter functional outcome were assessed. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, and “3 questions”. Data were analyzed using a variety of approaches which compare 2 treatment groups. The results for each statistical test for each trial were then compared. Results—Data from 55 datasets were obtained (47 trials, 54 173 patients). The test results differed substantially so that approaches which use the ordered nature of functional outcome data (ordinal logistic regression, t test, robust ranks test, bootstrapping the difference in mean rank) were more efficient statistically than those which collapse the data into 2 groups (2; ANOVA, P0.001). The findings were consistent across different types and sizes of trial and for the different measures of functional outcome. Conclusions—When analyzing functional outcome from stroke trials, statistical tests which use the original ordered data are more efficient and more likely to yield reliable results. Suitable approaches included ordinal logistic regression, test, and robust ranks test.

Effect of nitric oxide donors on blood pressure and pulse pressure in acute and subacute stroke

High blood pressure (BP), pulse pressure (PP), and rate pressure product (RPP) areeach associated independently with a poor outcome in acute ischemic stroke. Whereas nitric oxide (NO) donors, such as glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), lower blood pressure in acute ischemic stroke, their effect on other hemodynamic measures is not known. We performed a systematic review of the effects of NO donors on systemic hemodynamic measures in patients with acute/subacute stroke. Randomized controlled trials were identified from searches of the Cochrane Library, Pubmed, and Embase. Information on hemodynamic measures, including systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), and heart rate, were assessed, and hemodynamic derivatives of these were calculated: PP (PP SBP DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP DBP PP/3), mid blood pressure (MBP (SBP DBP)/2), pulse pressure index (PPI PP/MAP), and RPP (RPP SBP HR). The effect of treatment on hemodynamic measures was calculated as the weighted mean difference (WMD) between treated and control groups with adjustment for baseline. Results: Three trials involving 145 patients were identified; 93 patients received the NO donor, GTN, and 52 control. As compared with placebo, GTN significantly reduced SBP (WMD -9.80 mmHg, p< 0.001), DBP (WMD -4.43 mmHg, p<0.001), MAP (WMD -6.41 mmHg, p< 0.001), MBP (WMD -7.33 mmHg,p<0.001), PP (WMD -6.11 mmHg, p<0.001 ) and PPI (WMD -0.03, p=0.04 ). 3 GTN increased HR (WMD +3.87 bpm, p<0.001) and non-significantly lowered RPP (WMD -323 mmHg.bpm, p=0.14). Conclusion: The NO donor GTN reduces BP, PP and other derivatives in acute and subacute stroke whilst increasing heart rate.